who would win a war between australia and china

"The scenario of a Chinese attack on Taiwan is often considered the catalyst but even in this case the reasons for, and management of, the breakdown in China-Taiwan relations in the lead up would be critical. Six large amphibious vessels have been launched, three since 2015, and a third aircraft carrier, larger than its predecessors, will soon be completed. In 1947 with setting up of the United Nations, after the catastrophes of both world wars and the more limited wars in the intervening years, we tried to build a system of managing international relationships without the recourse to war. The United States might be forced to confront the shocking realization that the industrial muscle instrumental in victories like that in World War II President Franklin Roosevelts concept of America as the arsenal of democracy has withered and been surpassed by China. "When the US closed down Bagram airbase in Afghanistan the Afghan Army collapsed. "China does have the mass to sustain a war of attrition over a long period as it did, and has continued to do, in Korea and in Vietnam for that matter.". But the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society. Who would win in a battle between the U.S. and Australia? "Australia's real utility is as a strategic asset, giving both legitimacy and credibility to the US decision to employ its very formidable military force, and at the same time providing the US with a secure rear that could guarantee logistic and operational support. "In a war involving Taiwan, US forces would be deployed over long distances from CONUS [Continental United States]. It runs between the Philippines and Taiwan. And a navy. China might compound this with electronic and probably some physical attacks on satellites or related infrastructure. China or the US could do this by feeding misleading information to satellites from the ground known as spoofing to stop the space-based location pinpointing needed for weapons. The Pentagons latest threat assessment found China has already achieved parity with or even exceeded the United States in several military modernisation areas, including ship building, land-based conventional ballistic and cruise missiles, and integrated air defence systems.. And the West may not be able to do much about it. The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. These flew out of Japan and down the east coast of Taiwan to operate near the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier battle group and the Chinese Liaoning. One option to attack the man-made islands would be to send in teams of US Marine Raider commandos to destroy weapons systems. Critically, the United States is no longer able to outproduce China in advanced weapons and other supplies needed in a war, which the current one in Ukraine has made clear. These threats from nature pose potentially disastrous outcomes that look inevitable; we have yet to find the statesmen to deal effectively with them. He believesa blockade of Taiwan by China is more likely than a cross-strait invasion. "This looks like another reason for statesmanship in averting this possibility.". "Would Australia have taken steps to make sure its own intelligence is based on Australian information and assessments? China vs Japan - Who Would Win - Army / Military Comparison As Australia enjoys all the benefits of a free and open society in a stable and functioning democracy, our principles and values must extend to supporting the survival of Taiwan.. He believes Australia has a "fundamental strategic pathology to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own.". Vietnam and Iraq were illegal wars, with the US Administration(s) lying to their citizens and their allies about the strategic necessity and the morality of the use of armed force. Yet if China wanted to conquer Taiwan, the outcome could be different. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. In its consequences, it would be profoundly and devastatingly different. "The bases in South Korea and Japan may not be available, and Guam may also be unavailable. Allan Behm, who is now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years, the best one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. It is likely to impoverish us all; it may even kill most of us if it goes nuclear. It has been since at least Monash's time. "Australia has been there before. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. The People's Liberation Army is the military arm of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, which oversees the PLA through its Central . Find out more about our policy and your choices, including how to opt-out. With that in mind, I sought the views of four of Australia's most experienced military strategists, with 100 years of high-level military and strategic experience between them,to discuss what joining the US in a war with China could mean for Australians. Chinas grey zone strategy is designed to use fishing fleets to swarm disputed waters in the East and South China Sea, now supported by armed Chinese Coast Guard cutters leveraging their status as non-combatants to get in close and be able to overwhelm US Navy warship sensors and defence perimeters, former navy intelligence director James Fanell told US media. February 27, 2023 China's foreign minister Qin Gang will attend the G20 foreign ministers' meeting on March 2. Mr. Xi, who likes to say that the East is rising while the West is declining, evidently feels that Americas greatest weakness is on its home front. The almost daily probes of Taiwans air defences would suddenly turn serious. Far fewer know their real story. In a matter of minutes, Beijings Rocket Force could cripple Taiwans military, infrastructure and ports. Australians could wake up one morning to the news that we are at war with China. A separatist democracy against a legitimate government? It has additional radars and air defence weapons on outposts in the South China Sea, which extend its IADS zone out even further, although these latter systems can be destroyed by the US. In this scenario, the US and its allies could respond by conducting airlifts to Taiwan. And Beijings new navy has been in almost a constant string of live fire exercises for the past year. "That's what General Douglas Macarthur found in 1942. The U.S. economy is heavily dependent on Chinese resources and manufactured goods, including many with military applications, and American consumers rely on moderately priced Chinese-made imports for everything from electronics to furniture to shoes. "Practically this limits the sinews of war available to us: they would be insufficient. "This is the critical question. "At the time what I could see was the possibility that our intelligence had uncovered the spectre of WMD in Iraq. China had 55 small war ships in 2020, more than double the number it had five years ago. And, in some areas, China may even be ahead. And I cannot see America being willing to risk Chinese nuclear retaliation against the US homeland for Taiwan's sake. "The irrational elements thus make direct large-scale confrontation between two nuclear powers very dangerous. China is also developing the capabilities needed to support military operations at range, said Nouwens, suggesting they could attack across large distances. How Australia's way of life could change if we're pulled into war with "If they think the blockade is failing, they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted or they might escalate to attacking US forces supporting Taiwan. A War With China Would Be Unlike Anything Americans Faced Before If Australia was dragged into a war with China, what would it look like? "Washington would expect Australia to contribute the full range of our air and naval forces to the maximum extent of our capability, including surface warships, submarines, F-18 and F-35 fighters, P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, airborne early warning aircraft and tanker aircraft.. The Bashi Channel connects the South China Sea with the Pacific Ocean. Current Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would presumably discuss the matter with his National Security Cabinet before any decision is made but there are no checks and balances built into the system before the PM makes the biggest decision that a leader can make to send our young men and women to war. Russia-Ukraine war: Why does China suddenly seem to want to broker It means mine laying by air and naval units, particularly submarines, blockading ports, inspecting maritime traffic including commercial shipping, intercepting aircraft, and attacking adversary military forces as necessary. Where are our statesmen?". Modern warships carry only a limited number of weapons. Fishing boats could push into ancestral territory, backed up by armed coast guard vessels. Wherever they start, they finish only when one side decides to give up. It can deny the United States control of the air within 300 nautical miles (556km) from China's coast. It could take months to restore trade, and emergency rationing of some items would be needed. The Australian government has moved to confront Beijing over allegations of human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, and Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian has joined a chorus of. But which one would have military superiority in outright conflict? "The Kadena air base is 450 nautical miles away from Taiwan and threatened by Chinese surface-to-surface missiles. Satellite image of Chinese vessels in the Whitsun Reef in a disputed zone, March 23, 2021. Credit:Maxar Technologies via AP. Taiwan cannot be resupplied by land. The US could no longer win a war against China China's navy has just completed a mission that has left US officials terrified - and it has serious implications for Australia's security. India and Pakistan take pains to avoid such escalation. What would war with China look like for Australia? One year on: European and American attitudes to the war in Ukraine Admiral Chris Barriemakes the point that its possible the impact on Australia of any war with China could be greater than any other participant because of Australias low population. Were sorry, this feature is currently unavailable. Answer (1 of 34): I must assume Brian Greenhow is joking, but if he is not I must point out that wars aren't won by population numbers or imaginary 'allies', but by real Alliances, either historical or by treaty, and by technology, military hardware, political maneuvers, industry and money, lots . Here are some tips. The head of Russian mercenary group Wagner says his forces have practically encircled the crucial city of Bakhmut. "That is why I think it would be a mistake for America, or Australia, to go to war with China over Taiwan.". Allan Behm, now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years the best potential outcome for the US is a stalemate. No doubt Australian passions would run high. Steaming at 25 knots, an aircraft carrier in Pearl Harbour would take about a week to reach Taiwan. The military scenario alone is daunting: China would probably launch a lightning air, sea and cyber assault to seize control of key strategic targets on Taiwan within hours, before the United States and its allies could intervene. by Robert Farley L Here's What You Need to. A former US Army lieutenant colonel has warned of a possible "nuclear exchange" if the US breaks out into war with China. We cannot lose a single inch of the lands we inherited from our ancestors, the Chinese Defense Ministrys Information Bureau recently proclaimed, and we would not take a single cent of others possessions., RELATED: Drums of war: Ominous China warning. I suspect the US under the current president, Joe Biden, despite his various ambiguous statements, will avoid a direct confrontation with China. If the US went to war with China, who would win? "And oh, by the way, it's just going to get harder as we get further into the . Some wouldn't survive. US v China war: If conflict broke out, who would win? But will it be safer for women? "But, in a large-scale war involving many hundreds of thousands of people in offensive and defensive operations, even before reaching the attendant prospect of reaching a nuclear war threshold, Australia is unlikely to make a substantial difference. The bulk of these goods is transported aboard ships along sea lanes increasingly controlled by Chinese commercial interests that are ultimately answerable to Chinas party-state. The war in Ukraine reminds us of how uncertain these things canbe for both sides. For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct simultaneous high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan, and other US allies and partners. China believes the island is part of its territory and has vowed to take it back with force if necessary. The war has exposed divisions within the G20 that go beyond Russia and China. "This would be followed by a sea-crossing phase, a landing phase and a consolidation phase. "China's leaders could discreetly offer negotiations to Taiwan's leaders during a blockade before the risky step of ordering an amphibious invasion," Professor Fernandes says. This week, China suspended the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue a diplomatic mechanism for trade talksand accused Australia of "disrupt [ing] the normal exchanges and cooperation . "They're aggressively expanding their influence," he said. Thinking of scale I am reminded that In 1944 the US alone out-produced the rest of the world combined in all war stores before the wars ended in 1945. The USs 1.38 million active personnel are better trained and equipped than many of their 1.9 million Chinese peers but getting them in place, and in time, to take on China would be a crucial task. Stavros Atlamazoglou. "As a continental power, China has a distinct preference for land warfare. americanmilitarynews.com - Radio Free Asia 18h. In a rare joint statement, the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council said it was their primary . In 2004 U.S. manufacturing output was more than twice Chinas; in 2021, Chinas output was double that of the United States. The United States cannot win a war against China over Taiwan, four Australian defense experts have said in a series of interviews conducted by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. But, his hawkish new boss, Defence Minister Peter Dutton, says war with China should not be discounted. A new 'veloway' is welcome news for Melbourne's cyclists. Why Australia-China War Talk is Rising Between the Two Nations - Newsweek I don't think so! Major combat against the US means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. According to the late Sir James Plimsoll [in conversation with me], Mao Zedong said to Prime Minister Nehru when the two met in 1954 that, in a war with any adversary China could afford to dedicate 100 million dead. Behm says a war with China would be "profoundly and devastatingly different" from any other war Australia has participated in since World War II. For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan and other US allies and partners simultaneously.". Australia, however, was a strategic asset. The US Arleigh Burke-class destroyers hold 96. It is for that reason that some commentators, including me, do not think that China is likely to initiate an offensive war in the near future, until it is sure that it has enough mass to win quickly. Professor Hugh White, a former Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in the Department of Defence, Admiral Chris Barrie, Australias most senior military leader asChief of the Defence Force from 1998 to 2002, Allan Behm, a former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Defence Department. Have employers used high inflation as cover to make excessive profits? Professor Clinton Fernandes is a former intelligence officer with the Australian Army Intelligence Corps and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. "I cannot conceive that there are any benefits in Australia being at war with China unless the circumstances were so serious as to make the cost in lives and treasury worthwhile. 2. Rebuilding them could take years. "Melissa Conley Tyler and I (and others) have dealt with the Taiwan question in our joint paper. Yet the war in Ukraine is relatively small-scale compared with the likely demands of a major war in the Indo-Pacific. Russia's struggles in Ukraine are showing US special operators that they'll need to fight without their 'tethers' to win future wars. In Australia do these commentators truly believe what they have been saying or is it bluff? Are bills set to rise? The area around it would be highly contested and US war reserve stocks in the Pacific are earmarked for US forces that will assist Taiwan not for Taiwan itself. Protests break out in Iran as more schoolgirls hospitalised after suspected poisoning. China produces more ships, steel and smartphones than any other country and is a world leader in the production of chemicals, metals, heavy industrial equipment and electronics the basic building blocks of a military-industrial economy. An earlier government tinkered with the concept of a reduction in the ten years of warning but did almost nothing about demonstrating seriousness. Our economy would be paralysed as all trade with China and other major East Asian partners would stop dead and may not resume for a long time. Beijings tactic of area denial already appears to have been effective. China would have to launch an amphibious invasion, deploying troops along its beaches as the first step in a march towards the capital Taipei. To walk countries away from war we have concluded that statesmanship finds more purchase on risk aversion than on hawkishness. Wed like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. He says that unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into the conflict and their families, a war with China would have an impact on all Australians "economically, financially and personally it is likely to impoverish us all; it may even kill most of us if it goes nuclear". Dr. Babbage is the author of the forthcoming book The Next Major War: Can the U.S. and Its Allies Win Against China?. I think China now has adequate forces, including air, missile, electronic warfare, spec ops, naval, undersea and nuclear, to likely prevail in the first phase and perhaps in subsequent phases too.. What would war with China look like for Australia? I am convinced that the challenges facing the United States are serious, and its citizens need to become better aware of them. A blockade, he says, would mean that 80 per cent of ships and aircraft would be unable to pass. Any such war, he says, would primarily be a maritime conflict and would be on a scale unprecedented since World War II. "I do not know whether Defence planners in Canberra would have made such estimates. Inflation and unemployment would surge, especially in the period in which the economy is repurposed for the war effort, which might include some automobile manufacturers switching to building aircraft or food-processing companies converting to production of priority pharmaceuticals. "It is possible that the impact on Australia could be greater than any other assailant because of our low population. I draw here an important difference between politicians and statesmen. Army Leader Warns About Potential Land War with China Looking into the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe, and in the wider context NATO, is being drawn towards having to deal with an unacceptable risk of war. Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst with ASPI's Defence, Strategy and National Security Program, told Daily Mail Australia it is increasingly likely President Xi Jinping will order Chinese forces. The feud over the reigns of global influence is playing out in Southeast Asia. War over Taiwan would be disastrous, Australias chief of defence General Angus Campbell told a recent gathering. The Chinese government last week released a 12-point plan it devised to bring about an end to . Destroy the offensive capability of the PLAN and People . U.S. supplies of many products could soon run low, paralyzing a vast range of businesses. Iraq should have taught us that it makes no sense to support an ally in a war it cant win, and the stakes are much higher this time.. We dont own cargo ships to force vital supplies through any blockade. Don't Do It: An All-Out War With China Could End Humanity It is a bad idea to get into a shooting war with a fellow nuclear power. Confronting as that would be, perhaps more confronting is something many people do not realise: such a decision would not require any consultation in parliament. This is how we got here and what needs to change, 'Please confirm what Muslim refers to': Why Ali's birthday payment for his nephew was flagged by his bank, Kade was a fit 31-year-old when he died from a heart attack, Sherpa are world famous for their work, which is synonymous with their name. Aukus: Australia's big gamble on the US over China - BBC News The decision to go to war would not require a public discussion. The US will pursue the following war aims: 1. The US would be challenged by a powerful Chinese fleet in the region. What would war with China look like for Australia? Part 2 And, crucially, they would probably not be able to inflict enough damage to decisively defeat the Chinese. The only truly reliable way to counter the threat would be to attack the submarines in port when they refuel and rearm, he writes. To accept that argument as policy would mark the end of our strategic alliance with the US, leaving us more exposed to Chinese coercive pressure and political warfare, or even a direct military threat, Dr Davis says. "They would probably inflict a lot of damage on Chinese targets, but they would suffer very serious losses in the process. Oriana Skylar Mastro of Stanford University has testified that China dedicates all its resources to planning and preparing for a contingency in east Asia, while the US has additional responsibilities in the Middle East, Europe and worldwide. Tensions continue to simmer . "This decision over the possibility of war with China could be made more difficult because of ANZUS. Over the past two decades, China has built formidable political warfare and cyber warfare capabilities designed to penetrate, manipulate and disrupt the United States and allied governments, media organizations, businesses and civil society. The vision is not a new one: White knights charging forth, flags flying, to save friends from a bellowing dragon. But would Australia immediately take up the fight? Who would win in a war between Australia and Indonesia? "When I was born in 1945 the world population stood at about 2.7 billion people. These are all Cold War allies of the US, but they have not had to think about war in the region since the 1970s. Your Nuclear Attack Map for 2023 - mirasafety.com That means large paved airfields, humidity-controlled hangars and AI-enhanced maintenance equipment. An embarrassed politician may suddenly feel compelled to enforce a vague red line. (Handout photo from the U.S. navy) Admiral James Stavridis was 16th Supreme Allied Commander of NATO and 12th Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. "One can imagine the sociological fracture in Australia with funerals, commemorations, attacks on Australians of Chinese descent, the curtailing of any progressive economic reconstruction agenda for Australia.". "It is not clear how formidable Taiwan'sdefences would prove to be in the face of a Chinese invasion. "Notwithstanding their entirely different circumstances, for Australia to support Taiwan against China would be similar to Australia's supporting Catalonia against the Castilians. So it would be an even match. A major war in the Indo-Pacific is probably more likely now than at any other time since World War II. Have employers used high inflation as cover to make excessive profits? But its own submarines, combined with air and land launched missiles, could present an almost constant threat. If the United States cannot control the air, it cannot win either at land or at sea. All agree, for example, that the United States with or without Australias assistance cannot win a war against China. There are still hundreds of diplomats and politicians around the world including in Canberra working openly and behind the scenes to ensuretensions between China and the US never escalate into war. Provision of military hardware to Kyiv has depleted American stocks of some key military systems. Stock exchanges in the United States and other countries might temporarily halt trading because of the enormous economic uncertainties. Despite decades of warnings, our fuel refineries continue to close. I did not see anything like the same discontent in Australia. But will it be safer for women? Australia had long maintained it didn't have to choose. Professor Clinton Fernandesis a former intelligence officer in the Australian military and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. Taiwan is much closer to China than the United States. The collapse of the League of Nations and the dreadful cost of war held hard lessons for how we had to manage international relationships better. China is closing the gap, but will they be able to defeat America by the beginning of the next decade. US-China war over Taiwan would be biggest since WWII, Australian expert And Australia could be fighting for its survival. And heres our email: letters@nytimes.com. China could also weaponize its dominance of supply chains and shipping. Principles matter, he writes. Australia's oldest running coal-fired power station is about to close. All four analysts have held the highest security clearances that its possible to have. US vs. China: Who Would Win a War in 2030? The idea sounds grand charging forth, flags flying, to save a bullied island friend.